Former Minister of Energy Plachkov gave advice on how to survive a difficult winter without light and heat

On the eve of winter, Ukraine is facing unprecedented challenges in the energy sector. In the conditions of war, when Russian strikes cause significant damage to the energy infrastructure, preparing for the heating season becomes a critically important task.

Former Minister of Energy Ivan Plachkov spoke in an interview with «Hugs.Fund» about the necessary measures and challenges that the state, business and citizens will have to face.

In his opinion, this year preparation for the heating season and winter has become critically important not only for energy workers, but also for all citizens. He warns about possible interruptions in the supply of electricity, which may last even several days in case of intensification of military operations near infrastructure facilities.

The process of preparing for the autumn-winter heating season now, of course, it is a thousand times more relevant. And it is not only energy that needs to be prepared. If earlier only energy workers were preparing, and consumers simply relied on their efforts, then the situation has changed. The war and Russia's targeted attacks on our energy complex have made preparation critical,» he says.

The state of the energy industry: our generation cannot meet the country's needs

Before the war, Ukraine could produce much more electricity than it consumed and always had a reserve. Now the situation is much more complicated — its own generation cannot meet the country's needs, and therefore Ukraine is forced to balance at the expense of electricity imports from Europe.

«If at the time of independence in 1991 we had about 55,000 megawatts, despite the fact that Ukraine consumed about 30-35 megawatts, we always had a 40% reserve. Such a margin of safety before the start of the war was about 35%. Now Ukraine has lost a significant part of its energy capacity. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, one of the largest in Europe, no longer functions, resulting in the loss of 6,000 megawatts. Destroyed thermal power plants operating on coal, which adds another 7-8 gigawatts to the losses. In total, Ukraine lost about 9.5 thousand megawatts of generating capacity, while the current needs are about 10-11 thousand megawatts, and in winter they will be even higher,» says Ivan Plachkov.

According to him, debts on the energy market exceed 100 billion hryvnias, and tariffs for the population do not cover the cost of electricity production.

The ex-minister notes that mass disconnections of citizens from the power grid are due to the repair of power units in order to more or less prepare for winter.

«When temperatures are high, even in summer, consumption rises. And when, in order to prepare for the heating season, we have to take out the power units of nuclear plants for repair — one unit, the second unit, and they have a capacity of one thousand megawatts, then immediately minus two thousand megawatts. That is why there are such mass shutdowns and so on. But this is done so that we are more or less balanced in winter. More or less, since we definitely won't be able to balance,» he notes.

Ivan Plachkov also noted that the destruction of the distribution system, such as high-voltage substations and power lines, deepens the problems. Although he notes that only air defense can protect them from Russian attacks.

«In addition to the stations, unfortunately, the distribution system was also destroyed. These are high-voltage substations, power lines, and so on. This is a very complex complex and it is branched. And it's more accessible to smash hits. Because it is impossible to protect all power lines with air defense. There are no analogues in the world and, I think, there will be none in the near future that can protect energy facilities. The only effective defense is air defense. Therefore, I hope that it will be strengthened in order to preserve even those objects that are left that work. But there will be problems. We must understand and realize this,» he says.

At the same time, he urged citizens to prepare for possible power outages, even for a long time, especially in winter.

«We are not rejecting additional strikes. They will still attack the infrastructure, the closer to winter and especially in winter. That's why energy workers are preparing and we need to be ready for the fact that there may be no electricity for a day, maybe two days, or even a week. We have to prepare. God forbid this happens,» he said.

What should the state and people do?

Central authorities, government and local governments should work in a coordinated manner to prepare for winter. It is necessary to plan in advance repair work at nuclear plants and other energy facilities to minimize power outages.

According to him, it is necessary to expand the capacity of «Points of Invincibility» in cities, which will provide residents with the necessary resources in the event of a power outage.

«Central authorities, the government, the ministry, together with local authorities, need to expand and increase the capacity of «Points of Invincibility» in cities. So that people, children, old people, women could come there, and if necessary, for three days, for four days, while the energy workers will restore the infrastructure. There should be a diesel generator with a heater, there should be food, there should be medicine. We must prepare so that it does not happen like at the beginning of the war. Everything is fine, and then there is a huge crowd of people at the stations, no one knows where to go,» he said.

Ivan Plachkov also emphasized that Ukrainians should also find opportunities in advance for a temporary stay in rural areas with traditional stove heating in order to provide themselves with heat in case of long-term blackouts.

What should a business do? Diesel generators and import of electricity

Businesses for which electricity is critical for uninterrupted operation should consider installing diesel generators. This measure, although expensive, will ensure uninterrupted operation in the event of power outages.

In addition, there is an opportunity to participate in the import of electricity, which will give the business priority to receive electricity. Despite the high cost of imported electricity, it remains a more profitable alternative compared to diesel generators, which have significantly higher operating costs.

«In order to work, a business must have diesel generators, unequivocally. For business today, there are such conditions that if a business can buy, import, participate in the import of electricity, it will be the last in these blackout schedules. For example, it will have priority for receiving electricity. Why? On the one hand, it seems unfair, and on the other hand, imported electricity is expensive. The energy companies do not have money for the population and so on to purchase that volume. We get into such big debts, especially when it's emergency technical transfers. The business that participates in the import of electricity and finances the import directly through traders can receive a priority right. Diesel is 3-4-5 times more expensive. This is at cost. Undoubtedly, imports are cheaper, if not twice as much,» he said.

Shelling of the energy sector in the spring of 2024

On March 22, Russia carried out the first massive shelling of energy infrastructure facilities this year. The Russian army attacked Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Lviv Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Odesa, and other regions of Ukraine.

The biggest was the attack on the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant (HPP) in Zaporizhzhia. This is one of the largest and most powerful hydraulic structures in Ukraine. A rocket attack on the Dnipro HPP resulted in damage to two stations and a dam that are part of its structure.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, says that by winter, Ukraine needs to restore at least 25-30% of the damaged heat generation: «We need to fully involve imports. Also, before winter, we need to restore as much as possible from coal generation, from hydro generation, and build facilities in gas generation as much as possible.»

At the same time, according to the Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko, it is not appropriate to make any predictions about the difficulty of the next winter for the energy industry of Ukraine. In his opinion, now no one will be able to say with which generation Ukraine will end up in the winter: «Actually, everything looks comforting, because the system, despite the Russian strikes, is intact.»

The BBC predicts that Ukrainians can spend up to 20 hours a day without electricity or heating in winter.

In addition, on the night of June 22, the Russians launched missile attacks on critical infrastructure facilities in various regions of Ukraine. As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 25 air targets were shot down, but energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia and Lviv regions were still damaged. Also, as a result of an enemy attack on one of the facilities, two energy workers were injured.