The critical phase of the war will come in the next two months

Oleksandr Pavliuk / Photo from his Facebook

The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Pavliuk, believes that the next two months will be critical at the front, because Russia is throwing all combat-ready equipment to the front until Western aid arrives in Ukraine.

He told about this in an interview with The Economist.

According to him, the critical phase of the war will come in the next two months. As American aid is just beginning to arrive at the front, the Russians are throwing all the war-capable equipment they have to test the exhausted and under-resourced Ukrainian forces.

«Russia knows that if we get enough weapons within a month or two, the situation can turn against them,» Oleksandr Pavliuk said.

He noted that Ukraine urgently needs more air defense, and the expected delivery of F-16 fighters in early June will give a significant boost. But it remains unclear whether Ukraine will receive the newer versions of the F-16s, which are needed to fight Russian bombers.

The commander believes that Russia will continue to focus on the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. But intelligence suggests that soon the Russian troops will stretch the defense, attacking the northeastern regions of Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

According to Oleksandr Pavliuk, Russia is checking the stability of Ukrainian defense lines before choosing the most suitable direction. Also, Ukraine's loss of Ocheretyne allowed Russia to break through the first line of defense and put important supply routes at risk.

The commander believes that «frenzy» pressure, «air superiority» and an artillery ratio of up to 20:1 led to the loss of positions. Thus, along the entire length of the front, Russian cannons fire seven times more shells than Ukrainian ones.

Ukraine still holds Chasiv Yar, which is the key to the group of cities located behind it. However, Pavliuk claims that the loss of Chasiv Yar will not be of «decisive importance», it is just «an ordinary urban settlement».

The situation in Chasiv Yar

Serhii Chaus, the head of the Chasiv Yar city military administration, said that there are currently no Russian occupiers on the territory of the community. He also said that most of the people who stay in the city are elderly people.

Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Russia's top military leadership had set a task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

The spokesman of the National Guard, Ruslan Muzychuk, said that the Russian invaders are making attempts to attack from the flanks from the settlements around Chasovoy Yar in Donetsk region, but they are not succeeding.